Recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicates that net international migration (NIM) to the United States has declined sharply in recent months, following a downward trend that began in 2024. Updated estimates suggest that NIM for 2025 is on track to reach about 1.0 million, which is significantly lower than the 2.6 million recorded in 2024 and much less than the 3.5 million estimated for 2023.
The authors of the report, Evgeniya Duzhak and Addie New-Schmidt, note that “the contribution of NIM to overall U.S. labor force growth was quite large between 2022 and 2024, which tended to reduce labor market tightness. However, this contribution to labor force growth is projected to be much smaller in 2025.”
The updated figures are based on data from the Department of Homeland Security through May 2025 and build on previous methodology related to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) approaches for estimating undocumented immigrant inflows. The new data indicate that undocumented immigrant arrivals have continued to fall since June 2024.
Revisions for the year 2024 reflect lower-than-expected numbers of undetected border crossings and a faster decline in arrivals at or between ports of entry during the fourth quarter. The CBO’s most recent estimate suggests about 800,000 people entered undetected in 2024—down from earlier projections.
According to Duzhak and New-Schmidt: “the bulk of the drop in our estimate is because arrivals at or between ports of entry declined more quickly than expected in the fourth quarter.” They add that inflows at year-end were about half what had been projected previously.
In terms of policy outcomes, migrants encountered by border officials may face removal, court appearances, parole, or release into the country depending on their circumstances. The release rate—the percentage released after encounters—has dropped notably since last year and was about 10% as of May 2025. This rate is comparable to levels seen during both early COVID-19 pandemic months and early 2012.
Stricter immigration policies have contributed to these declines; current unlawful entries are now similar to those observed before recent surges in migration.
Despite accounting for lawful permanent residents and nonimmigrants such as students or temporary workers entering or leaving the country, total NIM for this year remains below historical highs but aligns more closely with pre-pandemic averages.
The Federal Reserve Bank’s projection diverges from CBO forecasts due largely to a steeper actual decline in inflows: “Our estimate for 2025 is significantly lower than the CBO’s estimate of 2.0 million, mainly because inflows have declined much faster than the CBO anticipated,” write Duzhak and New-Schmidt.
If current trends continue—with higher detention rates and fewer releases—net immigration could fall even further below one million this year.
This slowdown comes as foreign-born individuals made up over half of new entrants into the U.S. labor force between 2022 and 2024 according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.nr0.htm). With fewer immigrants expected going forward amid an aging population and low fertility rates among U.S.-born residents (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db471.pdf), labor market tightness may increase along with upward wage pressures for some groups.
